Arctic News: Arctic Methane Release: "Economic Time Bomb"

On March 19, 2013, a number of experts came together for an Ecorys.com workshop, as part of a
study?examining the impact of a 50-Gt release of methane from the melting permafrost at the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS)?over different time periods, ranging from one to five decades.

Back in 2008, a study by Natalia Shakhova et al. considered release of up to 50 Gt of predicted amount of hydrate storage as highly possible for abrupt release at any time.

In order to estimate the cost of such a release, this new study used a more recent version of the model used in the renowned Stern Report. Findings of the study are published in the journal Nature. The conclusion is that such a release from the ESAS alone comes - in the absence of mitigating action - with a price tag of $60 trillion. By comparison, the size of the world economy in 2012 was about $70 trillion.

Such a methane pulse will "bring forward 15?35 years the average date at which the global mean temperature rise exceeds 2?C above pre-industrial levels", says the paper.

"The economic consequences will be distributed around the globe, but the modelling shows that about 80% of them will occur in the poorer economies of Africa, Asia and South America. The extra methane magnifies flooding of low-lying areas, extreme heat stress, droughts and storms."

"The total cost of Arctic change will be much higher," says the paper. To find out the actual cost, more feedbacks should be incorporated in the model, such as linking the extent of Arctic ice to increases in Arctic mean temperature.?The full impacts of a warming Arctic include, for example, ocean acidification and altered ocean and atmospheric circulation. "Midlatitude economies such as those in Europe and the United States could be threatened, for example, by a suggested link between sea-ice retreat and the strength and position of the jet stream, bringing extreme winter and spring weather. Unusual positioning of the jet stream over the Atlantic is thought to have caused?this year?s protracted cold spell in Europe."

Experts attending the workshop include:?

Peter Wadhams, Head of the Polar Ocean Physics Group at Univeristy of Cambridge. Chris Hope, ?reader in policy modelling at Judge Business School, University of Cambridge, and?creator of the PAGE-models used for the Stern-report? Carl Koopmans, Professor of Infrastructure and Economics, VU University, Amsterdam? Henri de Groot, professor in Regional Economic Dynamics, VU University, Amsterdam? Marcel Canoy, Professor at the?School of Economics and Management, University of Tilburg Gail Whiteman,?Professor of sustainability, management and climate change at the Department of Business-Society Management, Erasmus University, Rotterdam?

References

- Arctic time-bomb warning
in: Cambridge News, by Jennie Baker
http://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/Education/Universities/Arctic-time-bomb-warning-20130724123026.htm

- Anomalies of methane in the atmosphere over the East Siberian shelf: Is there any sign of methane leakage from shallow shelf hydrates?
N. Shakhova,?I. Semiletov, A. Salyuk, D. Kosmach
http://www.cosis.net/abstracts/EGU2008/01526/EGU2008-A-01526.pdf

- Arctic methane?release is an 'economic time bomb' - study
by Nafeez Ahmed

Source: http://arctic-news.blogspot.com/2013/07/arctic-methane-release-economic-time-bomb.html

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